Kismayo (Somalia Today) — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived Saturday in the southern port city of Kismayo to ease a long-running standoff between the federal government and the semi-autonomous Jubbaland state, officials said.
The visit follows reports that Ethiopia and Kenya are quietly mediating efforts to reduce tensions between Mogadishu and Jubbaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe.”
“The two leaders are holding further meetings, and we’ll share the outcomes once discussions conclude,” Jubbaland Information Minister Abdifitah Mohamed Mukhtar told reporters Sunday. “For now, there’s nothing concrete to announce.”
Diplomatic sources in Kismayo told Somalia Today that delegations from Nairobi and Addis Ababa are in the city to facilitate dialogue.
Rift over the election and federal powers
The dispute dates to early 2024, when Jubbaland formed its own electoral commission in defiance of a federal directive to unify state and national voting. The Interior Ministry condemned the move as illegal and unconstitutional.
After Ahmed Madobe was re-elected as Jubbaland’s president, the federal cabinet rejected the outcome and labeled him a former leader. The cabinet urged the Supreme Court to investigate alleged violations of electoral law.
Federal officials also argued that Jubbaland’s constitution limits a president to two terms, while Madobe sought a third mandate.
Relations worsened in November 2024 when Jubbaland cut cooperation with Mogadishu, accusing the federal government of interference in regional affairs.
The tensions have spilled into violence. In July 2025, government and Jubbaland-aligned forces clashed in Beled-Hawo, a Gedo border town, leaving casualties on both sides. Federal officials accused Jubbaland of sending troops into areas under the control of the national army.
Analysts say the crisis reflects deeper strains in Somalia’s federal system, which divides power between the center and five federal member states.
“The real issue isn’t personalities but power,” said Mohamed Mukhtar, a Somali political analyst. “Somalia still hasn’t resolved how to share authority and resources between Mogadishu and the states. That’s what drives these recurring confrontations.”
Regional envoys, including Mohamed Abdi Afey, Mahboub Maalim, and Abdirahman Ali Hassan (Colow), have engaged in shuttle diplomacy to reconcile the two sides, according to public statements from the offices of Jubbaland’s presidency and Somalia’s prime minister.
Madobe has clashed with federal leaders before. Under former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, Jubbaland resisted federal control over electoral management, triggering similar standoffs from 2019 to 2021.
Regional dynamics and next steps
Kenya and Ethiopia, both part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, play dual roles as security partners and neighbors with strong interests in border stability and trade. Their involvement signals concern that the feud could weaken joint operations against Al-Shabaab.
Neither Mogadishu nor Kismayo has publicly confirmed the presence of Ethiopian or Kenyan envoys in the talks. A senior Somali diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said both governments want a unified Somali position before ATMIS draws down further.
For President Hassan Sheikh, the trip is one of his most delicate reconciliation efforts since returning to power in 2022. A breakthrough could stabilize southern Somalia ahead of the next electoral cycle. A failure could deepen fragmentation inside the federation.
Talks continue in Kismayo. Both leaders face pressure to find common ground. Regional partners stand ready to step in again if negotiations stall.
